Hi Pete,
Last year an insider forecaster said that housing stock was overvalued by 30% which seemed a bit extreme then but it looks reasonable now. I checked the property element of our legacy notifications and adjusted expectations accordingly. The disposal of property is already a worrying issue with last minute gazundering and having to go back to the market with houses that we thought were sold - so some time-shifting going on property income too.It's also certainly worth looking at the contribution of shares to the pot and accept that they won't or shouldn't be, based on advice, sold on for some time until they recover which won't be soon. So a big theoretical mark down in the short term - and even if they do recover somewhat in the future the benefit won't show in legacy income as you'll have to account for it at 'on the day' prices. The theory is that pecuniaries hold value which is some comfort but one black hole is the number of elders who have downsized, possibly moved to a nursing home and live on invested income which will disappear like their pension funds.
who mentioned prudence...?
Richard Hick
Head of Legacy
Telephone
020 7239 3105
From: Legacymarketing@... [mailto:Legacymarketing@...] On Behalf Of peterconnolly43
Sent: 13 October 2008 12:20
To: Legacymarketing@...
Subject: [Legacymarketing] Budgetting in a challenging environment...
Hi all,
I am working on our income budget for 2009/10, the indications being
quite a significant shortfall (15 to 20%)from those figures included in
our 5 year plan (drafted 2 years ago). This shortfall is obviously due
in main to the economic environment and outlook.
I'd be really grateful for anyone willing to share their current
outlook on legacy income for the next couple of years and how they're
factoring in the extraordinary current events.
I think I might be challenged internally for being too conservative and
thought some sector comparison would be useful.
Thanks in advance,
Pete Connolly
Scope
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