SWAZILAND@NEWSLETTER EXTRA
PUBLISHED BY SOUTHERN AFRICA CONTACT (DENMARK)


International Crisis Group Southern Africa Project:
Peter Kagwanja, Beyond Royal Rule And Naked Reed Dances. The Nation
(Nairobi), 28 April 2006.


...(The) new constitution Mswati unveiled on February 8 grants limited
freedoms, and although he has said restrictions on parties have ended, it
remains vague on the right to form political parties.

Hopes were high that the new constitution would remove all the vestiges of
the 1973 royal decree by Mswati's father, King Sobhuza II, which outlawed
political parties, suspended basic freedoms, and entrenched royal
absolutism. Instead it left the monarchy intact, and intensified political
tension.

The constitution took 10 years (1996-2006) to develop and cost the tiny
Southern Africa kingdom over US$16.5 million. Mswati, 38, applauded the
new constitution as a dawn of a "new political dispensation that is fully
founded on our culture and traditions." But opponents accuse the ruling
Dlamini clan of consistently playing the tradition card to defend its
stranglehold on power.
Since the 1800s, Swazi Kings (iNgwenyamas) have exclusively ruled the 1.1
million inhabitants of this mountainous kingdom, covering an area of
17,363 square kilometres or four times smaller than Lake Victoria.

Bare-knuckled tyrants

Pre-colonial Swazi kings may not have been democrats, but neither were
they bare-knuckled tyrants nor absolute monarchs of the medieval European
mould. "They [kings] ruled like the 'people's mouthpiece' or the 'mouth
that tells no lie," writes the Swazi political scientist, Joshua Mzizi.

However, the Swazi monarch was shorn of its gentle and benign hue during
British colonial (1903-1968) rule. The king was turned into a paramount
chief in the archetypal British "indirect-rule" system. The axis of power
also radically shifted from the king's accountability to his Swazi people
to one of patronage secured on the royal family's ultimate authority over
land allocation-now retained under the Swazi Nation Lands (SNL).

The present monarchy therefore combines the worst excesses of colonial
authoritarian government, with a thin veneer of traditional customs.

Mswati's father, Sobhuza II, failed to sway the British to grant Swaziland
independence on the basis of a purely monarchical system. So at
independence in September 1968, the king caved in and agreed to a
constitutional monarchy based on a parliamentary democracy with a prime
minister and multi-party politics.

Sobhuza's royalist party, the Imbkodvo National Movement (INM), held all
24 seats in parliament. Despite this, he issued the infamous 1973 royal
decree that imposed royal absolutism, nipped Swaziland's nascent
opposition, and cut short the kingdom's democratic experience. The decree
gave the king "supreme powers," suspended basic freedoms and banned
political opposition parties as "alien and incompatible" with the Swazi
way of life. Swaziland's out-and-out royal power has all the trappings of
the pariah one-party or no-party military systems that stalked Cold War
Africa.

Mswati - one of 600 children of King Sobhuza II by his 100 queens-ascended
to the throne in 1986, as the second wave of democratisation was beginning
to sweep the continent. The king appointed a Constitutional Review
Commission (CRC), chaired by his brother, Prince Mangaliso Dlamini, in the
wake of a series of strikes by the Swazi Federation of Trade Unions
(SFTU), popular anti-government protests, and fire bombs by unknown
arsonists.

But the Mangaliso report blocked an early return to a constitutional
order, claiming that the people were content with the status quo-a
no-party state and royal supremacy. An incensed civil society rejected the
report, and ratcheted up pressure for democratic reforms. Capitulating to
pressure from within and from regional leaders, in 2002 Mswati established
yet another Constitutional Drafting Committee (CDC), chaired by his
brother, Prince David Dlamini.

Marry unwilling brides

He eventually ratified the 164-page constitution on June 26, 2005. The one
area where it breaks new ground is in its respect for the rights of women.
"Women have the right to equal treatment with men, including equal
opportunities in political, economic and social activities," it declares.
The government also promises to "provide facilities and opportunities
necessary to enhance the welfare of women to enable them realise their
full potential and advancement."

But delivery on the gender promissory note has become a tall order. The
rights of Swazi women are often extinguished in the domain of traditional
law, which still groups women together with minors. Absence of curbs on
the king's right to use the tradition to marry unwilling brides might
continue to trigger discontent.

The as yet unresolved case of Zena Soraya Mahlangu, abducted from school
on October 9, 2002 by the king's emissaries to become his tenth wife,
remains a stain on the monarchy's reputation. Her mother's cry for justice
and attempts to seek Zena's freedom under common law were fruitless. She
sadly learned that the king has authority to traditionally select his
wives - irrespective of their age and will - at his pleasure.

The constitution left the monarchy's hereditary powers intact. The king is
still above the law, and not accountable to his subjects. Besides his
tight control over the security forces- including the military, the police
and prison services-he retains a firm grip over parliament, whose role is
no more than advisory and a royal rubber stamp. The monarch also keeps
much of his overarching powers over the judiciary, and the right to select
the prime minister, the cabinet, and chiefs.

It also avoided the litmus test of the popular vote - such as through a
referendum as happened last year in DR Congo and Burundi (where the draft
won overwhelming approval) and Kenya (where it was resoundingly rejected)
- which would have given it the ultimate seal of legitimacy. "The
constitution is in force, but it is not democratic or derived from the
people," argues Mario Masuku, the President of the outlawed People's
United Democratic Movement (PUDEMO).

Perhaps its greatest weakness is the failure to clearly revoke the 1973
decree and to legalise opposition parties. "The constitution's vagueness
on the issue of political parties can be read as an attempt to undermine
any move to allow democracy to take root in the country," said Dr Khabele
Matlosa, Director of Research at the Electoral Institute of Southern
Africa.

Royalists are treading a familiar path beaten by an earlier crop of
apologists of one-party despotism. They are insisting that Swaziland is
not ripe for political pluralism. "Time is not right for the return of
political parties," Prince Mangaliso argues, insisting that only
individuals can run for parliament. This argument echoes Yoweri Museveni's
cynical "no party state" thesis, which Uganda's president used to
rationalise his National Resistance Movement's over-two-decades-long
monopoly on power. Museveni reluctantly restored Uganda's political
pluralism in late 2005.

The King is all we have

Others fear a deluge after the monarchy. "We tried political parties soon
after independence, but from the look of things, it did not work for us,"
said government spokesman Tercy Simelane. "[The multi-party system]
divided families in a very small country, and the nation decided it was
not our way of life," he adds.

This royalist line is quickly finding favour with some of the king's
subjects: "Why do these people want to overthrow the king? He is all we
have. Swaziland is a kingdom country. If we get a president like other
countries then there will be wars," said a resident of the capital,
Mbabane.

If political tensions boil over, there will be high price to pay.
Swaziland is fast becoming a security risk to its Southern African
neighbours. "People are very angry. If they continue to be harassed, and
their political rights denied, as is the case, we will end up reaching the
road of an armed struggle," said one activist. "If the king doesn't open
up the debate, then people may resort to this kind of violence," said
PUDEMO leader Mario Masuku.

The Swaziland Youth Congress (SWAYOCO) has already declared it would take
up arms to protest repression. "The government does not possess a monopoly
on violence. We will fight fire with fire," Sandile Phakathi, the
organisation's Information Secretary warned. Since the constitution was
ratified in June last year, 20 fire-bombs have killed several people and
destroyed property.
Mario Masuku denies his party's involvement but stops short of condemning
the use of violence and vowing to step up the campaign against the king.
"The king will try to silence the opposition, to try and tighten the knot
around us but we will continue to make things very difficult for the
state," said Masuku.

Others players are pushing for political pluralism through the courts.
Swaziland's oldest political party, the Ngwane National Liberatory
Congress (NNLC), has sought registration. Swazi Law Society President,
Paul Shilubane, has also gone to the High Court in Mbabane to establish
whether the 1973 decree has ceased to exist. Deadlock in the lawful
channels might play into the hands of opposition hardliners.

The opposition, meanwhile, is often its worst enemy. Some within its ranks
are shooting themselves in the foot by calling for the abolition of the
monarchy. Swaziland's homogenous society has spared its people from
Africa's festering internal wars along ethnic fault lines, which have
ravaged such countries as Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d'Ivoire and
Congo. It has also instilled cultural pride, including a great deal of
love and loyalty to the monarchy.

But the Swazi are neither docile nor averse to democracy. The opposition
need to play a more tactically sound game. They must recognise that, like
the British, the Dutch or the Japanese monarchies, Swaziland's royalty is
an important fact of its history and culture. It might do better by
centring its campaign around limiting the king's absolute powers, and
pushing for a constitutional monarchy that respects basic freedoms and
abides by international norms.

The king's response to the challenge has been to turn bellicose, moving
his big guns to head off the simmering revolt. He has wielded the Umbutfo,
the Swazi Defence Force that Sobhuza II created from fervently loyal
youths, to scuttle mounting opposition. Umbufto regiments are now on high
alert, carrying out urban patrols and police roadblocks on all major
highways to nab critics. In January 2006, they arrested 16 members of
PUDEMO, charging them with high treason and sedition. There are also
reports of torture, coerced confessions and deaths in detention, forcing
opposition activists to flee to exile in South Africa.

Culture and tradition are becoming the monarchy's ultimate weapon of
tightening its grip on power. The king is using the old to stifle the new.
"Mswati is cynically manipulating Swazi history, culture and traditions to
yoke rather than to free his people," says Chris Maroleng, an analyst at
the Pretoria-based Institute of Security Studies. But this is a risky
gamble that he is unlikely to win in the long-term. "The monarch should
shift tradition from being an ideology of domination to one of a shared
value system," argues Joshua Mzizi.

Slide to the brink

Swaziland's royalists have to quickly realise that the kingdom's return to
constitutional monarchy and genuine multi-party democracy is the best
guarantee for its lasting stability and the future of the monarchy - and
many a Reed Dance ceremony. Political parties are part of the equation.

Swaziland's slide to the brink is triggering a meltdown of its
donor-reliant economy. A spendthrift monarchy and a strengthening South
African rand are pushing the economy to the ropes.

Finance Minister Majozi Sithole admits that as a result of regional
dynamics, including an overbearingly strong rand, the economy slowed down
to 2.1 per cent in 2004 from 2.6 per cent recorded in 2003 - and it's
still plunging.
In addition, cheap Chinese products are choking Swaziland's textile and
sugar industries, leading to loss of incomes and jobs and increasingly
making farmers and workers restive.

More than 10,000 Swazis lost their jobs last year and 30,000 more jobs are
at risk. Between 30 and 40 per cent are jobless; more than one third are
fed by external food donors; 66 per cent live below the poverty line and
life expectancy has plunged from 54 to 35 years in less than a decade. The
prevalence of HIV/Aids in Swaziland's adult population is 42.6 per cent,
the highest in the world, but, to its credit, the government is taking
drastic measures to reverse the situation.

Neighbours are shying away from taking a bold stance on Swaziland's
governance deficit. South Africa's former President Nelson Mandela
declared when launching his "moral presidency" in 1994 that: "Human rights
are the cornerstone of our foreign policy". However, even as it provides
80 per cent of the kingdom's imports and absorbs 60 per cent of its
exports - mainly sugar, wood pulp and minerals - South Africa is unwilling
to use its muscle to nudge its neighbour to embrace change. The country's
nationalists still carry a burden of debt to Swaziland, which provided
them with a safe passage into exile .

Mbeki's quiet diplomacy

President Thabo Mbeki's soft line - derided by the local media as "quiet
diplomacy"- is encouraging the king's headstrong response to democracy
activists. Inversely, the Swazi elite is shrewdly playing on the yet
unresolved dispute over the KaNgwane, Ngavuma and Nsikazi territories in
South Africa's Mpumalanga province to win moral and diplomatic scores
against its heavyweight neighbour, and to fend off any pressure for
democratic governance.

The Swaziland-South Africa wrangle over the border goes back to 1989 when
the apartheid regime promised to transfer KaNgwane "homeland" to Swaziland
as a reward to King Sobhuza II for his secret deal allowing its agents to
raid and assassinate ANC cadres in the 1980s, but the regime fell before
it did it. Although Pretoria has rejected the Swazi claim, arguing that
this would violate the African Union's policy on respecting borders
inherited from colonial times, the tussle has significantly weakened its
hand as a disinterested broker of Swaziland's impasse.

Other members of the international community have been too willing to buy
the royalists' line that change in Swaziland must come very slowly. The
Commonwealth seconded two experts to assist with drafting the new
constitution. Its Secretary-General, Don McKinnon, described the new
constitution as "a first but vital step" towards democracy.

But it would be risky for regional leaders and the international community
to bury their heads in the sand. If they don't act in concert, and fast,
when they finally do they will find themselves too late to prevent
Swaziland's low-level rebellion from blowing up into a dangerous conflict.

Dr Peter Kagwanja is the Director of the International Crisis Group's
Southern Africa Project.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\
---------------------------
SWAZILAND@NEWSLETTER is published by Southern Africa Contact (SAC,
Denmark), and appears twice monthly. News items are for information only,
and strictly not for publication, broadcast or other forms of
redistribution.

If you wish either to subscribe or discontinue subscription send a mail
to: SAK-Swazinewsletter-subscribe@...

Earlier issues can be read at
http://uk.groups.yahoo.com/group/SAK-Swazinewsletter
If there are suggestions as to the content of the newsletter, please let
us know at pmm@...
See also the newly established photo archive. Click on photos in each
album to see an enlarged version. Send digital material for inclusion in
the photo archive to same address.
_______________________________________________________________________