Ola para todos,

abaixo estao algumas questoes que algumas pessoas podem estar se
perguntando sobre a situacao da guerra no momento e respostas que pretendem
explicar porque uma grande e visivel manifestacao contra a guerra e'
particularmente importante neste momento.

Neste sabado havera' manifestacoes contra a guerra em todo o mundo,
inclusive em Sao Paulo (veja em que outros lugares em
http://www.stopwar.org.uk )

Sinesio

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

From the Stopwar Coalition at University College London
http://www.uclstopwar.org.uk


SAT 12th APRIL: ANTI-WAR DEMONSTRATION
__________________________________________

SOME QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

- Is this war over?

The information coming out of Iraq is extremely patchy. At the time
of writing large areas of Baghdad and the rest of the country remain
outside the control of the United States. There will continue to be
military operations in Northern Iraq. Nevertheless it seems that the
main phase of the war, as far as the world's TV cameras are
concerned, is drawing to a close.

- Are people celebrating in the streets?

Many are. As in Afghanistan, this is very natural if a brutal
dictatorship has fallen and a bloody war seems to be ending. Along
with celebration is widespread looting, both of government and of
private targets. There is a power vacuum in Iraq, which will
undoubtedly soon have to be filled.

- Are people welcoming US/UK troops?

Probably some are. What is certain is that every instance of this is
being shown time and again on our screens. One person who spoke to
Robert Fisk probably sums up the main view: "You'll see the
celebrations and we will be happy Saddam has gone. But we will then
want to rid ourselves of the Americans and we will want to keep our
oil and there will be resistance and then they will call
us "terrorists"". (The Independent, 09/04/2003)

- Are people in Iraq nervous about what happens next?

Reports from Iraq suggest that most people are. There is a
humanitarian crisis which is not going to disappear all of a sudden;
and there is the question of the long term future of the country.

- What about the rest of the Middle East?

Very nervous. There is the question of which country will be targeted
next. There is also the question of the boost that an occupation of
Iraq, and the installation of a puppet regime, gives to Islamist
forces (indeed the roots of Al-Qaeda probably lie in the presence of
US military bases in Saudi Arabia). What is very certain is that this
war is the start of something, not the end of it.

- So what will happen next in Iraq?

Various local "leaders" are being prepared to hold power, along with
some expatriate Iraqis. The democratic credentials of these leaders
are not currently open to public scrutiny. In any case, overall
control will remain in the hands of the US. Perhaps some token UN
resolution will be passed, but the US will remain in control of aid,
reconstruction and administration of the country.

- Economically?

As exposed in a detailed report on Channel 4 news,
reconstruction/development contracts have already been handed out to
US companies which are close to the Bush administration. For example
the contract to fight the oil fires was given to a Kellogg Brown &
Root, a subsidiary of Halliburton, without any bidding process. Other
companies, both non-US based and US based, but with no direct links
to the administration, can hope at best to get subcontracts. Have a
look at:
http://www.fortune.com/fortune/washington/0,15704,437274,00.html

- Other Economic Effects?

Presumably other countries in the region will be deterred from the
possibility of selling their dollar reserves/trading oil in Euros. As
one analyst puts it: "This debate is not about whether America would
suffer from losing the US dollar monopoly on oil trading - that is a
given - rather it is about exactly how hard the USA would be hit. The
smart money seems to be saying the impact would be in the range from
severe to catastrophic. The USA could collapse economically."
(Geoffrey Heard, see our website for this excellent, detailed
article).

- Oil reserves?

Who gets the contracts to exploit Iraq's oil reserves is still
uncertain, though again it is mostly going to be US companies. As
almost all commentators have pointed out (including those in favour
of the war), controlling the world's second largest oil reserves
(possibly the largest if proper surveying could have been carried
out) has been a major factor of this war.

- Other things to watch out for?

The sanctions against Iraq which have resulted in the deaths of more
than half a million children will presumably now be lifted. If any
economic "normality" returns this will be of massive benefit to the
Iraqi people. However it is very likely this will be portrayed as a
result of the coalition victory, rather than of the lifting of
sanctions.

- Why continue demonstrating?

We have not just opposed the war because of the blood that is being
spilled immediately as the bombs fall. We have also opposed this war
because it makes the world a more dangerous place - because of the
lives that are still to be harmed or lost. Since we stood with the
Iraqi people we cannot suddenly turn away from the region: As Iraq's
wealth is appropriated; as a new "friendly" regime starts to purchase
more arms (from arms dealers of the victorious states of course); as
new military bases are installed in the region to threaten
surrounding countries.

*****************

Finally: As always, please visit our website to read analysis of
current events and take part in discussions. If you know people who
would like to receive these updates, please encourage them to visit
the website and sign up.

All the best
Murad
__________________
UCL Stop the War Coalition: http://www.uclstopwar.org.uk





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