REAL POLITICAL DILEMMAS

Burmese pro-democracy activists are in real dilemma now.

• If pro-democracy activists ask people to participate in the referendum to vote "NO" to regime's pro-military constitution, there are two possible outcomes: _
     _ The "NO" vote may win and regime's pro-military constitution may be defeated.
           (OR)
     _ Regime may use tricks and rig votes and declare that they win, regardless of the real result. In that case, the participation by pro-democracy activists and people in the referendum may just give some credibility to regime's sham roadmap.
• If pro-democracy activists ask people NOT to participate in the referendum, there are also two possibilities: _
     _ The boycott by pro-democracy activists and people will damage the credibility of regime's referendum
     _ But, the boycott may give regime a chance to say "We gave you a fair chance to express your views in the referendum, but you failed to take the opportunity, and you have only yourself to blame!"

And here we must keep in mind that as soon as a new constitution takes effect, everything that happened prior to the new constitution may generally be, supposed to have been, wiped out slate-clean. It means that any previous election results may automatically expire once the new constitution has been approved by the referendum.

• And, if pro-democracy parties take part in new elections in 2010 , there still are two possibilities: _
     _ The pro-democracy parties may win the elections; but it may very likely be a fruitless or futile victory because 2008 constitution bars pro-democracy leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi from being elected, and it gives 25% of seats in the parliament to  military officers, and it states that the President must come from military background, and it allows military to veto any decisions by the parliament, and it gives permission to military to annex power at any time they want.
         (OR)
     _ The regime may use its lackey militant prganizations like Kyant-phut or Swan-arr-shin to intimidate and to prevent people from voting for pro-democracy parties, delivering a de-facto defeat to the pro-democracy parties.…
• If pro-democracy parties boycott 2010 elections, there are also two possibilities: _
     _ The boycott by pro-democracy activists will damage the credibility of 2010 elections.
     _ But, it will effectively clear the way for pro-regime lackey parties and military officers to control 100% of seats in the parliament.

So please give your opinion on how pro-democracy parties should, and could, respond to regime's referendum and election challenges.

You can write your opinion in the comment box on http://burmadigest.info/2008/02/23/real-political-dilemma/ .

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