_ by Thuria Tayza

         People of Burma's overwhelming desire to vote NO on the pro-military constitution in the coming referendum is very clear. They'll do so if they get a chance. But the Generals are doing all they can, fair or unfair, to get a YES result _

1. Since the beginning when they declared that they'd hold a referendum in May '08, they also declared that a new election under the new constitution will be held in 2010. It clearly shows that in their mind they are sure about the referendum result; determined to get their constitution approved by any means.
2. The draft constitution was made public only a month before referendum date, making it virtually impossible for ordinary people to grasp the essence of the draft constitution.
3. The draft constitution copies were sold only in limited quantities in Rangoon and other major cities only, leaving out the bulk majority of voters in remote areas in the dark about what is really written in the draft constitution.
4. The draft constitution was not made public even about three months after the constitution drafting commission has finalized it. And during those about three months period, the generals inserted some new clauses into the already finalized constitution, without any consultation with any public body. These illegitimately added clauses give total immunity to the Generals. How convenient for them!
5. Although it was declared that the referendum is to be held in May, the exact date was not announced until less than one month before the date. The date was fixed only when the Generals felt sure that they have prepared all arrangements for vote rigging and intimidation to get a YES result.
6. And the date was announced very shortly before the actual referendum to make it impossible for opposition party(s) to launch an effective "Vote NO" campaign.
7. Until a few days before the referendum, overwhelming majority of people have not yet seen the draft constitution.
8. The government made very little or nil effort to explain the constitution to the ordinary people on the ground.
9. The government made no public discussions or debates on the constitution.
10. And political opposition is not allowed to hold any public discussions or debates on the constitution.
11. Instead, the military government passed a law which gives a straight three years minimum jail sentence to any one who says anything against the referendum.
12. The authorities very widely interpret that vaguely worded referendum law and have already wrongfully accused and detained many political activists on false charges of attempting to disrupt the referendum.
13. Although the referendum law only prohibits attempts to disrupt the referendum, authorities misuse that referendum law also to arrest activists who lawfully campaigned to persuade people to peacefully participate in the referendum and vote NO.
14. The referendum law does not clearly state the minimum percentage of voter turn out for the eligibility of the referendum. So, for instance, if only the soldiers and military families are allowed to vote (to vote YES) and majority of ordinary people who want to vote NO are intimidated not to vote, then the referendum may still be ridiculously eligible with tiny percentage of voter turn out!
15. U Aung Toe who was Chair of National Convention and constitution drafting commission is also the Chair of referendum commission. So it's very much like, he is the player as well as the goal keeper and as well as the referee and as well as the linesman.
16. Virtually all members of all local referendum commissions everywhere in Burma are members of pro-junta militant Kyant Phunt organizations.
17. Opposition Party(s) are not allowed to take part in local referendum commissions.
18. International and United Nations referendum monitors and observers are also NOT allowed inside the country.
19. Students and government servants are forced into Kyant Phunt organizations, and Kyant Phunt leaders have ordered their members to vote YES in the referendum.
20. Arrangements have been made in the army to trace how individual soldiers and their families vote in the referendum, so that they won't dare to vote NO.
21. Top Generals have ordered regional and local military commanders and government ministers to make sure a YES result in the areas where they are responsible.
22. So all  regional and local military commanders and government ministers these days are doing an intensive and nonstop effort to intimidate people to vote YES, or at least to buy YES votes.
23. 5000 kyats or a batik longyi or a bag of rice is usually offered by local authorities for a YES vote.
24. In border areas, migrant workers and traders from neighbouring countries (especially those from Communist China, a long term supporter of Burmese military regime) are given temporary Burmese citizen cards so that they can vote (to vote YES) in the referendum.
25. Many already deceased persons and non-existing persons have been found on the local electoral registers, whilst many a really living and really existing eligible voters cannot yet get themselves onto the electoral register.
26. Although multi millions of legal and illegal migrants from Burma are living abroad, Burmese embassies around the world do not make any systematic effort to get them onto expatriate electoral registers.
27. Instead, Burmese embassies around the world send out invitations for voting only to a selected few people whom they trust to vote YES.
28. In addition to announcing the actual referendum date only less then one moth before it, Burmese embassies around the world collect the expatriate votes two weeks earlier than the announced date, so that exile politicians are left with very little chance to campaign among expatriates for a NO vote.
29. Burmese embassies' dishonest arrangement to disallow vast majority of expatriate "NO" voters in Singapore and Japan has led to chaos and serious discontent and dissent among  expatriates Burmese communities in those countries.
    • see http://burmadigest.info/2008/04/27/photo-burma-constitutional-referendum-expat-voting-in-singapore/
    • see http://burmadigest.info/2008/04/27/photo-burma-constitutional-referendum-expat-voting-in-japan/
30. The deadline date for expatriate votes is 27.04.08 in many countries, which has already passed now, with unbelievably huge number of multi millions of migrants from Burma around the world haven't yet got a chance to cast their votes.
31. Read also http://burmadigest.info/2008/04/16/referendum-in-burma-to-be-held-on-10-5-08-full-of-deceptions/

Because of such massive irregularities, whatever results the military junta declare after the referendum, it will be just a subject of mammoth ridicule by the whole self-respecting international community (which usually does not include governments of Russia, Communist China, Sudan, Zimbabwe etc.).

If junta declares a YES result, in a believe-it-or-not manner, no decent international leader will recognize it as a respectable credible result.

If junta have to concede and confess defeat and declare a "NO" result truthfully, the top Generals will lose face with their own hardline deputies, and then there is a strong possibility of a soft coup or a palace coup by his hardline deputies to topple current military supremo Than Shwe. In such a case the military junta will need to make arrangements to draft a new constitution; probably they will then reconvene a new national convention, again with their crony and lackey delegates, taking the country back to square one.

Eventually, irregularities during the referendum will just pave the way for continued political deadlock in Burma.

[This article is an on-going one, and will be added on and modified continually as required until referendum is finished and the results are clear.]