(http://burmadigest.info/2009/03/04/dealing-with-burma-through-china/)

By Prof Kanbawza Win

THE PEOPLE of Burma have high hopes for Barack Obama. Burmese still look to Washington — rather than Beijing, New Delhi, or Moscow — to provide reliable political support for democratic change. But other foreign policy issues pressing in on the Obama administration may quickly push the Southeast Asian country to the back burner.

The United States continues to play a key role in Burma. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, on her current tour of Asia, singled Burma out for attention, signaling a potential shift in U.S. policy away from the current sanctions regime. But the country with much greater influence on the ground is China. With Clinton sitting down with the Chinese to discuss comprehensive cooperation, can Beijing and Washington hammer out a “bipartisan consensus” on Burma?

East vs. West

The United States has two schools of thought when it comes to dealing with the Burmese junta. One side blindly opposes anything having to do with the Burmese military dictators, viewing the junta as evil and advocating for more sanctions to further isolate the regime. The other side, led by academics, intellectuals, and others, feels that the current stalemate and the isolation of the junta do not serve the interests of the American or Burmese people. They believe in dialogue, but not necessarily “constructive engagement” as practiced by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

While U.S. policies on Burma have been traditionally paralyzed by this standoff, China has approached Burma slowly and deliberately, based on national interest. Their policy makers are experts on Burma and they speak fluent Burmese. Most importantly, they know the culture and the motivation of the Burmese, especially the mindset of the generals. Chinese officials regularly visit Burma to closely monitor the pulse of the ruling elite. They study the players carefully, they know the sensitive nature of Burmese nationalism, and they are not arrogant in their dealings with either the government or the opposition.

China supports the present regime, but it has also taken care not to antagonize the opposition. The Chinese have met with many opposition players and have made particular efforts to build working relationships with a younger generation of leaders in exile who have the temperament to develop good diplomatic skills, and an understanding of Western thinking and policy formulation. In other words, China is looking after its own interests by dealing with the current Burmese government but also hedging its bets in case of another uprising and the toppling of the military regime. .......

...... In light of worsening conditions in Burma and significant changes in global power politics since the turn of the millennia, a change in strategy is needed. To best achieve U.S. objectives, this strategy should leverage all four major instruments of power — economic, military, information, and diplomacy.....A smart precondition before the Obama administration offers any carrots would be to insist that the Burmese junta unclench its fist by releasing political prisoners including Burma’s Nobel laureate Aung San Sui Kyi.

By teaming up with China, the United States can devise a policy that both respects this democratic opposition and also reaches out to the current Burmese government. If the two great powers can resolve their differences over Burma policy, despite different political systems, then they can set an example for the undemocratic Burmese government and the democratic opposition to achieve a compromise that can bring Burma, finally, into the 21st century.

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